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The FTTx roll-out and capex worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2014-2019

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LONDON, July 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportbuyer.com has added a new market research report:

The FTTx roll-out and capex worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2014–2019

https://www.reportbuyer.com/product/2201151/The-FTTx-roll-out-and-capex-worldwide-forecasts-and-analysis-2014–2019.html

The commercial and economic environment for next-generation access (NGA) has evolved quickly during the past 12 months, and operators will have to adapt their long-term plans to match the changes. This report forecasts coverage and take-up of different NGA technologies, assesses the costs and points to opportunities.

About this report

This report provides:

-a 5-year forecast of coverage, take-up and capex split by four FTTx technology options (FTTC/VDSL, FTTB/dp/VDSL, FTTB/LAN and FTTH), plus DOCSIS3.0+ and VDSL-CO in 57 countries and 7 regions
-an assessment of the business environment, the technology drivers and the cost trends behind our forecasts
-key implications and recommendations for operators in the region.
-The forecast levels of capex are what we consider the most likely outcome based on operators' current thinking.
-The model can serve several other functions beyond the immediate scope of this report. It can be used to provide the costs of alternative scenarios, for example: different mixes of technologies, different demand profiles in different geotypes, different completion dates. If you wish to explore these options, please contact the author.
-For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/FTTx-2014.

The business environment for fixed NGA has changed a great deal in the past 12 months

- The general economic environment has improved in key regions such as Europe. Revenue trends for fixed broadband, particularly NGA, are strong, and significantly
stronger than those of mobile (see Figure 36). We forecast stronger growth in fixed broadband than mobile in every region until 2019 (see Figure 37). (Mobile revenue is
nevertheless about four times greater than broadband.) For incumbent operators, cable is an ever-increasing threat creating greater incentive to invest.
- In North America and developed Asia–Pacific, the environment is different. Fixed investment among integrated plays was a low priority until recently. In the USA, Google
Fiber is causing AT&T and Tier 2 incumbents to invest in fixed access. In developed Asia–Pacific, FTTB and FTTH coverage is already high, and future investment may be
limited to upgrades from FTTB to FTTH and from earlier lower-capacity PONs to next-generation PONs.
- Investment in fixed infrastructure has tended to be a low priority in emerging markets. Some of the negative trends that affect mobile in Europe are also emerging, and some operators see opportunities in developing fibre, particularly where new-build and a growing middle class improve the business case. Several high-profile roll-outs, such as the HSBB project in Malaysia, indicate that take-up can be very good.
Contents

8.Executive summary
9.Executive summary
10.Key implications
11.Key implications [1]
12.Key implications [2]
13.Key implications [3]
14.Market definition
15.Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 57 countries in 7 regions
16.Definitions
17.Forecasts
18.More than two in five premises worldwide will have access to an FTTx connection by 2019
19.There will be more than 245 million FTTH connections and 235 million other FTTx connections worldwide by 2019
20.Western Europe: End of 2013
21.Western Europe: Forecast for 2019
22.Central and Eastern Europe: End of 2013
23.Central and Eastern Europe: Forecast for 2019
24.North America and developed Asia–Pacific: End of 2013
25.North America and developed Asia–Pacific: Forecast for 2019
26.Key countries in other regions: End of 2013
27.Key countries in other regions: Forecast for 2019
28.Highest levels of coverage, FTTx
29.Highest levels of coverage, FTTH
30.Highest levels of penetration, FTTx and cable
31.Highest levels of penetration, FTTH
32.The highest levels of capex in developed economies will be in Western Europe
33.Business environment and network options
34.The business environment for fixed NGA has changed a great deal in the past 12 months
35.Conversion rates on fibre-based services are improving
36.There is a needs-based case for speeds above 30Mbps and up to 1Gbps
37.In Europe, cable broadband is gaining market share of fixed broadband connections at the expense of telcos
38.FTTx roll-out tends to follow cable
39.In mature markets, larger mobile operators are taking a strategic interest in fibre access
40.We expect some mobile operators in developing economies to reconsider investment in fibre access
41.Utilities and third entrants are appearing in greater numbers in the FTTx markets in developed countries
42.LTE solutions for fixed coverage have severe limitations, and some national broadband plans now recognise this
43.Update on FTTC/VDSL/vectoring
44.Update on FTTB/dp/VDSL
45.Update on G.fast
46.Update on FTTH
47.Maximising coverage for given capex is causing a rethink of old assumptions
48.Update on capex model
49.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
50.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
51.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: assumptions for FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP
52.Our baseline assumption is that FTTH/GPON costs four times more to pass and connect than FTTC/VDSL
53.The relative cost to pass a premises with FTTH compared to the cost to pass with FTTC will decline
54.The model considers the increasing incremental costs of roll-out to less-favourable demographics and topographies
55.However, we recognise that roll-out decisions are increasingly based on other factors as well as cost
56.The model also takes into account the cost variances between countries
57.The cost to roll out a horizontal FTTH/GPON network varies mainly according to labour costs
58.The cost to roll out an FTTC/VDSL network varies mainly according to labour costs and the number of lines per cabinet
59.About the author and Analysys Mason
60.About the author
61.About Analysys Mason
62.Research from Analysys Mason
63.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: FTTx capex by region, to 2019
Figure 3: FTTH roll-out and take-up by region, 2019
Figure 4: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, 2019
Figure 5: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 6: Definitions used in this report
Figure 7: FTTH coverage, by region, 2011–2019
Figure 8: FTTx coverage, by region, 2011–2019
Figure 9: NGA and non-NGA fixed broadband connections, by technology, worldwide, 2011–2019
Figure 10: FTTH connections, by region, 2011–2019
Figure 11: FTTx connections, by region, 2011–2019
Figure 12: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2013
Figure 13: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2013
Figure 14: FTTx capex by country, Western Europe, to 2019
Figure 15: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2019
Figure 16: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2019
Figure 17: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013
Figure 18: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013
Figure 19: FTTx capex by country, Central and Eastern Europe, to 2019
Figure 20: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019
Figure 21: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019
Figure 22: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia–Pacific, 2013
Figure 23: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia–Pacific, 2013
Figure 24: FTTx capex by country, North America and developed Asia–Pacific, to 2019
Figure 25: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia–Pacific, 2019
Figure 26: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia–Pacific, 2019
Figure 27: FTTH roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, 2013
Figure 28: FTTx roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, 2013
Figure 29: FTTx capex by country, key countries in emerging regions, to 2019
Figure 30: FTTH roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, emerging markets, 2019
Figure 31: FTTx roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, 2019
Figure 32: FTTx coverage as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
Figure 33: FTTH coverage as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
Figure 34: FTTx plus cable broadband connections as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
Figure 35: FTTH connections as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
Figure 36: FTTx capex by region, to 2019
Figure 37: FTTx capex by region, 2014–2019
Figure 38: Change in fixed broadband and mobile service revenue by region, worldwide, 2012–2013
Figure 39: CAGR of fixed broadband and mobile service revenue by region, worldwide, 2013–2019
Figure 40: Conversion rates (premises with active connections / premises passed), selected operators, 4Q 2013
Figure 41: Selected forecasts of high-end access speeds required based on services, four scenarios
Figure 42: Change in cable operators' share of fixed broadband connections by country, 4Q 2012–4Q 2013
Figure 43: Cable Internet versus FTTx coverage, year-end 2013
Figure 44: Percentage change in revenue by country, Europe, 4Q 2012–4Q 2013
Figure 45: FTTx plus cable take-up versus GDP per capita by region
Figure 46: Countries where incumbents use FTTC/VDSL as their main NGA technology, and commercial vectoring status, Europe, June 2014
Figure 45: Old and new models for FTTx deployment
Figure 46: Basic overview of NGA network topologies and elements
Figure 47: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
Figure 48: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP
Figure 49: Baseline assumptions on cost per premises passed and connected, a developed market, 2014
Figure 50: Cost per home passed and per connection by technology, 2012–2019
Figure 51: Cost to pass a home with FTTC/VDSL, FTTB/VDSL and FTTH/GPON, by decile of housing density, medium-sized country, 2014
Figure 52: Example of roll-out modelling from core capex model
Figure 53: Relative costs to roll out a horizontal FTTH/GPON network by country, worldwide, 2013
Figure 54: Relative costs to roll out an FTTC/VDSL network by country, worldwide, 2013


Read the full report:
The FTTx roll-out and capex worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2014–2019

https://www.reportbuyer.com/product/2201151/The-FTTx-roll-out-and-capex-worldwide-forecasts-and-analysis-2014–2019.html

For more information:
Sarah Smith
Research Advisor at Reportbuyer.com
Email: query@reportbuyer.com
Tel: +44 208 816 85 48
Website: www.reportbuyer.com

 

 

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