Wheeling, W.Va. (WTRF) – From the Desk of StormTracker7: A winter system is starting to move into the Ohio Valley and stay with us as we head through Monday afternoon that could provide significant snowfall and or slight risk of icy spots.

There were two scenarios that were outlined earlier this week of possible storm tracks: a northerly and a southerly track. Models have since come into agreement about a hybrid of the two.

That means there is still a risk for impactful snow in our region, however there are a few atmospheric variables that could limit snow potential to start. A changeover to all snow is likely early Monday morning.

Oftentimes we are dealt a wildcard and have to deal with what’s called a warm wedge. This is a pocket of air that is warmer than 32 degrees Fahrenheit in the mid levels of our atmosphere and can fully derail and bust a forecast. Central and Northern WV typically experience this warm wedge due to the circulation of air aloft around a weather system.

This diagram showcases how precipitation can be significantly altered if we see any nudge of warmer air through the mid levels of the atmosphere around our region. Weather models do not pick this up and this could reduce snow totals if precipitation starts out as sleet or freezing drizzle.

The National Weather Service out of Pittsburgh has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the surrounding area until 1PM Monday.

This means take action and be alert of changing weather patterns as we head into Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

SO HOW MUCH SNOW?

However, we can generally say that we could see significant snow from Sunday afternoon into the Monday morning commute.

These are forecast snow totals for Sunday into Monday. Lesser amount are possible with the onset of sleet or freezing rain lessening snowfall amounts.

There will likely be impacts to travel and disruptions to daily life from this system.

Travel will become slick and hazardous on bridges and overpasses. Travel Sunday night through Monday morning could be dangerous.

Please be careful if you must go out. If so, make sure you have a winter weather kit in your car as well as leave with additional time and expect road delays.

The StormTracker7 Weather team will continue to track this system, update snow totals, and give you the latest on-air and on our website.

Keep up with the forecast here.